That's the way she goes. I couldn't help but think back on that story as things have been playing out in all too similar a fashion in the Bitcoin options market.
Each week millions of dollars pour into directional bets, then price skips around a bit, only to end the week back near the max pain point.
Directly where "the house" needed it to be. Last week was no different, we opened Monday up above $65,000, only for price to ultimately land under $63,000 before options expired. As you'll see below, the max pain point on the recent expiry was $62,000 on over $1 billion of notional interest, the majority of which expired worthless. The longer this choppy price action persists, the tighter this range will become, which makes a meaningful break outside of it in the not-so-distant future all the more likely. From an options perspective, the longer price compresses in this fashion, the cheaper it will become to buy contracts in both directions. Think of this the same way we mentioned the recent rush for puts. What you may have noticed in the chart above is the range is becoming ever tighter as these moving averages near one another. The price for BTC puts a week and a half ago surged after the selloff happened. The move happens first, then the rushed demand happens second. And there was also March, when demand for BTC calls went parabolic after we breach $60,000. One area we can look for a directional hint as to when this expansion might happen is this PANDA Terminal chart from Ben Lilly on Twitter this morning, which has been a useful leading indicator for the two most previous price expansions. If we start to see these dots shift to predominantly red or green in the coming days, the probability of a heightened volatility move out of range will begin to ramp up. This allows those who are able to successfully front-run the expansion in volatility to profit when price and IV move in tandem. Remember, boredom begets opportunity. That's all for me this week, I look forward to seeing you all in the Trading Pit on Tuesday where Ben and I will be unpacking these dynamics, as well as in our interactive options room in the metaverse which you'll be hearing more about in the days to come. In either event the time to be "long vol." seems to be fast approaching once again. And while it experienced a quick jolt today with the move above $62,000, expect this IV plummet to continue. Especially if BTC trades in its range between the 50-day (green line) and 100-day (blue line, below) moving averages that we mentioned last week as a likely destination for price in early May.
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